Post by John on May 12, 2006 11:32:40 GMT -4
It's a Metter of fact: Sell Glavine and Co. now
By Larry Dobrow
Special to CBS SportsLine.com
I have no vested interest in the success or failure of your roto baseball team. I care not a whit if you think "your boy" Doug Davis is about to turn things around, nor if you've executed an on-the-sly Joe Blanton/Gustavo Chacin roster do-si-do. Your roto mirth and misery simply do not register on my radar -- unless you're one of my competitors, in which case I hope every box-score perusal stirs in you the vague dread of an imminent family wedding.
But I'm still human; I can't stand to see a child suffer. And so I take the occasion of this week's SHDFBNE (SportsLine Hump Day Fantasy Baseball Double Ninja Extravaganza) to urge you in the strongest possible terms: Sell high on anyone/everyone associated with the Metsie pitching staff.
"But Larry," you mew weakly. "Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez have given me wins AND strikeouts in copious, delectable volumes! Billy Wagner has notched a gaggle of saves! Duaner Sanchez and Aaron Heilman have totally won holds for me!"
To this I respond: First, it's Mr. Dobrow to you. Second, the odds of Glavine continuing to get an eight-foot-wide strike zone from the umps are about as high as those of Pedro remaining hale and hearty once he enters the triple-digits in innings pitched. Third, something's screwy with one or more of the fingers on Wagner's left hand –- I can't put my finger on it (pun semi-intended), but the guy just doesn't look right.
Fourth and most importantly, Sanchez and Heilman are on pace to throw 111 and 93 high-leverage innings, respectively. At this rate, come late August they'll be meat, and thus enormously prone to torpedoing wins and save opportunities alike. Given Willie Randolph's "unconventional" approach towards monitoring pitcher usage, I say get out now while the gettin's still good.
Cut your losses
Randy Johnson, New York Yankees: In his eight starts this year, he has handled pansy lineups (KC, Baltimore, Anaheim of LAcramento) with aplomb. Against everybody else, a kind word to describe his performance might be "vomitous." In a 49-strike, 43-ball cameo against the Red Sox on Tuesday night, the Unit appeared terrified to throw his fastball anywhere near the plate (though the always-impartial YES Network broadcasters suggested that he was merely "a little off" with his location). Factor in that he surrendered his big-game bona fides in game three of last year's ALDS, and what's left? A goofy glare, a truck-stop mustache and fading memories of seasons past.
Jason Marquis, St. Louis Cardinals: I guess the question here is whether he was ever all that good. The answer: sure, in leagues that count pitchers' hitting stats. He might actually be the Cards' best offensive option at second base and right field, but you don't want his ruler-straight fastball anywhere near your rotation.
Be patient, fella
Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers: On my radio gig the other night (plug alert! plug alert!), the hosts practically assaulted me with Teixeira questions, tacitly threatening my family and my knees in the wake of my earlier guarantee that he'd be a good first-round investment. Let's just take a deep breath here, shall we? Inhale. Exhale. Good. Now: While Teixeira's numbers have been well below expectations so far, three games in Houston followed by a 10-game homestand loom in the near future. To you, the roto layperson, that means 13 consecutive contests in pint-sized ballparks, and the promise of many a dinger and related statistical trinkets. Giddy-up.
For real
Ted Lilly, Toronto Blue Jays: Dear Teddy, You've hurt me before, tantalizing me with brief spurts of dominance (especially, for reasons unknown, against the Red Sox) before soiling the bedsheets and retreating to your happy place on the DL. But this time, I really think it's gonna work out between us. I'm a bit weary of the 18 free passes in 34 innings, but your K rates are up, you're going deeper into games and you've been much nicer to my sisters. Let's give it another try. Shmoopily yours, Larry D.
Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals: He hits at RFK. He hits at Shea and PNC and whatever they're calling The BOB now. He'd hit at the BBC or the Bada-Bing, if they'd let him. At some point, we've gotta stop fretting about his next grip-crippling hangnail and start acknowledging that he's four times the pure hitter Sean Casey ever was.
Sell high
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves: If you own this guy, chances are you took last week's mini-surge (.303 average, eight RBI, even a walk) as a validation of both your patience and uncanny ability to identify a prospect after he appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Rather than wrench a rotator cuff patting yourself on the back, take in the whole picture -– most notably, the 12 walks and 84 strikeouts in 391 career MLB at-bats -– and deal him for literally whatever you can get. If you can get Raul Ibanez and two Fresh Prince pogs for him, grab it. The Braves are impeding his learning curve by keeping him in the bigs.
Buy low
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Just as with ponytailed Lori Q. back in the seventh grade, I have been massively roto-crushing on Mr. Morneau for about two years now. And just as my infatuation intensified after LQ suddenly sprouted two distinct lumps on her frontal torso -– yes, there were steroid accusations -- my passion for Morneau spiked once anew this week as his bat inevitably warmed (five hits, seven RBI in his last three games). Go get him, tiger.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies: You'd be buying waaaaay low here, as he still plies his craft as a member of the AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons. Plus he's never thrown more than 101 innings in any professional season due to injuries and, by most accounts, is a complete moron (bar fights aplenty). That said, in 23 innings with the Red Barons, he's allowed one run and 10 hits, walking only one and striking out 36. Silly manager Charlie Manuel may not be the quickest blinker in the managerial clubhouse –- he strikes me as the kind of guy who'd clear beer out of his crisper to make room for cauliflower florets –- but even he has to see the obvious upside of shifting Ryan Madson back into the Philly pen to accommodate Hamels.
By Larry Dobrow
Special to CBS SportsLine.com
I have no vested interest in the success or failure of your roto baseball team. I care not a whit if you think "your boy" Doug Davis is about to turn things around, nor if you've executed an on-the-sly Joe Blanton/Gustavo Chacin roster do-si-do. Your roto mirth and misery simply do not register on my radar -- unless you're one of my competitors, in which case I hope every box-score perusal stirs in you the vague dread of an imminent family wedding.
But I'm still human; I can't stand to see a child suffer. And so I take the occasion of this week's SHDFBNE (SportsLine Hump Day Fantasy Baseball Double Ninja Extravaganza) to urge you in the strongest possible terms: Sell high on anyone/everyone associated with the Metsie pitching staff.
"But Larry," you mew weakly. "Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez have given me wins AND strikeouts in copious, delectable volumes! Billy Wagner has notched a gaggle of saves! Duaner Sanchez and Aaron Heilman have totally won holds for me!"
To this I respond: First, it's Mr. Dobrow to you. Second, the odds of Glavine continuing to get an eight-foot-wide strike zone from the umps are about as high as those of Pedro remaining hale and hearty once he enters the triple-digits in innings pitched. Third, something's screwy with one or more of the fingers on Wagner's left hand –- I can't put my finger on it (pun semi-intended), but the guy just doesn't look right.
Fourth and most importantly, Sanchez and Heilman are on pace to throw 111 and 93 high-leverage innings, respectively. At this rate, come late August they'll be meat, and thus enormously prone to torpedoing wins and save opportunities alike. Given Willie Randolph's "unconventional" approach towards monitoring pitcher usage, I say get out now while the gettin's still good.
Cut your losses
Randy Johnson, New York Yankees: In his eight starts this year, he has handled pansy lineups (KC, Baltimore, Anaheim of LAcramento) with aplomb. Against everybody else, a kind word to describe his performance might be "vomitous." In a 49-strike, 43-ball cameo against the Red Sox on Tuesday night, the Unit appeared terrified to throw his fastball anywhere near the plate (though the always-impartial YES Network broadcasters suggested that he was merely "a little off" with his location). Factor in that he surrendered his big-game bona fides in game three of last year's ALDS, and what's left? A goofy glare, a truck-stop mustache and fading memories of seasons past.
Jason Marquis, St. Louis Cardinals: I guess the question here is whether he was ever all that good. The answer: sure, in leagues that count pitchers' hitting stats. He might actually be the Cards' best offensive option at second base and right field, but you don't want his ruler-straight fastball anywhere near your rotation.
Be patient, fella
Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers: On my radio gig the other night (plug alert! plug alert!), the hosts practically assaulted me with Teixeira questions, tacitly threatening my family and my knees in the wake of my earlier guarantee that he'd be a good first-round investment. Let's just take a deep breath here, shall we? Inhale. Exhale. Good. Now: While Teixeira's numbers have been well below expectations so far, three games in Houston followed by a 10-game homestand loom in the near future. To you, the roto layperson, that means 13 consecutive contests in pint-sized ballparks, and the promise of many a dinger and related statistical trinkets. Giddy-up.
For real
Ted Lilly, Toronto Blue Jays: Dear Teddy, You've hurt me before, tantalizing me with brief spurts of dominance (especially, for reasons unknown, against the Red Sox) before soiling the bedsheets and retreating to your happy place on the DL. But this time, I really think it's gonna work out between us. I'm a bit weary of the 18 free passes in 34 innings, but your K rates are up, you're going deeper into games and you've been much nicer to my sisters. Let's give it another try. Shmoopily yours, Larry D.
Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals: He hits at RFK. He hits at Shea and PNC and whatever they're calling The BOB now. He'd hit at the BBC or the Bada-Bing, if they'd let him. At some point, we've gotta stop fretting about his next grip-crippling hangnail and start acknowledging that he's four times the pure hitter Sean Casey ever was.
Sell high
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves: If you own this guy, chances are you took last week's mini-surge (.303 average, eight RBI, even a walk) as a validation of both your patience and uncanny ability to identify a prospect after he appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Rather than wrench a rotator cuff patting yourself on the back, take in the whole picture -– most notably, the 12 walks and 84 strikeouts in 391 career MLB at-bats -– and deal him for literally whatever you can get. If you can get Raul Ibanez and two Fresh Prince pogs for him, grab it. The Braves are impeding his learning curve by keeping him in the bigs.
Buy low
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Just as with ponytailed Lori Q. back in the seventh grade, I have been massively roto-crushing on Mr. Morneau for about two years now. And just as my infatuation intensified after LQ suddenly sprouted two distinct lumps on her frontal torso -– yes, there were steroid accusations -- my passion for Morneau spiked once anew this week as his bat inevitably warmed (five hits, seven RBI in his last three games). Go get him, tiger.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies: You'd be buying waaaaay low here, as he still plies his craft as a member of the AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons. Plus he's never thrown more than 101 innings in any professional season due to injuries and, by most accounts, is a complete moron (bar fights aplenty). That said, in 23 innings with the Red Barons, he's allowed one run and 10 hits, walking only one and striking out 36. Silly manager Charlie Manuel may not be the quickest blinker in the managerial clubhouse –- he strikes me as the kind of guy who'd clear beer out of his crisper to make room for cauliflower florets –- but even he has to see the obvious upside of shifting Ryan Madson back into the Philly pen to accommodate Hamels.