Post by John on Jun 23, 2006 16:59:11 GMT -4
Draft Preview: Brown, Jackson highlight list of breakouts
By Michael Fabiano
Senior Fantasy Writer
Amidst the endless cheat sheets, strategies and dollar values owners will encounter, sometimes a successful draft comes down to knowing which players are primed for enormous statistical seasons. As owners who had Tom Brady, Larry Johnson or Steve Smith last season can attest, some breakout athletes can be the difference between a competitive team and one that has a chance to win a championship.
Here's our list of 15 potential breakout candidates for 2006:
Breakout Players
Drew Bledsoe, QB, Dallas
Bledsoe's rise in draft value can be summarized in two words: Terrell Owens. The presence of the talented wide receiver meant greater statistical success for Jeff Garcia and Donovan McNabb in the past, and the same should happen in the case of Bledsoe. While the Cowboys offense will still be based on the run, there's no reason to believe Bledsoe won't be able to accrue close to 3,800 yards and 25-30 touchdowns with T.O. in the pass attack.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami
Ricky Williams has been suspended for the entire season and is now with Toronto of the Canadian Football League, so Brown will serve as the true featured back in Miami. Head coach Nick Saban has shown great faith in Brown and will lean on him for 300-plus carries and 30-40 receptions out of the backfield, so expect him to break the 1,200-yard mark and record eight to 10 total touchdowns. He's well worth a second-round selection in all seasonal formats.
Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
The addition of head coach Scott Linehan and his high-octane offensive schemes should make Bulger one of the league's most attractive quarterbacks. With the support of Steven Jackson in the backfield, a talented core of wide receivers that includes Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis and in a division with little defense, Bulger should close in on 4,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns. Injuries are a concern, but Bulger's statistical upside is worth the risk.
Domanick Davis, RB, Houston
Davis' value was in question when it was believed Houston would choose Southern Cal's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft, but the selection of N.C. State's Mario Williams instead made Davis a breakout candidate. While injuries have been an issue throughout his pro career, it's hard to look past his statistical potential in new head coach Gary Kubiak's offense. Kubiak knows about backfield success from his time in Denver, so Davis has a chance to be solid.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco
Davis, a first-round selection out of Maryland, has a chance to make some serious noise as a rookie. A physical specimen with soft hands and a high level of athleticism, Davis should become a prominent option in the pass attack for quarterback Alex Smith and be difficult to tackle after the catch. He will need some time to adapt to the pro level, but Davis has the skills and abilities to produce 50-60 receptions and 500-plus yards in his first pro season.
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina
Delhomme has been underrated since his move from New Orleans to Carolina, but this could be the season he establishes himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. With DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield and Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson and Keary Colbert in the pass attack, Delhomme's offensive weapons have never been better. He could push 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns, so consider him in the middle rounds.
Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
The presence of Linehan also improves the value of Jackson, who will be prominent in the St. Louis offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined to record 49 receptions, 1,650 yards and 11 touchdowns under Linehan in Miami last season, and the same sort of numbers are well within reach for the versatile and talented Jackson. He should produce career bests across the board and is without question worth a first- or second-round selection.
Julius Jones, RB, Dallas
Jones must fend off injuries (and Marion Barber) to make the ultimate impact, but his best-case scenario is an attractive one from a statistical perspective. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball with more success now that Terrell Owens is in the offense, so Jones has a chance to exceed expectations and become the reliable and productive back he was late in his rookie season. Owners should consider him in the third- to fourth-round as a No. 2 back.
Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit
Jones failed to meet expectations last season, but we've decided to stick with him as a potential breakout candidate. A versatile athlete who should be prominent in the offense of new coordinator Mike Martz, Jones had drawn praise in the offseason from new head coach Rod Marinelli and Martz alike. He does come with a certain level of rish due his 2005 failures, but Jones should post 1,000-plus yards and is still worth a second- to third-round selection.
Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville
Injuries have been an issue for Leftwich over the past two seasons, but there's no doubt he has the abilities to produce solid numbers. Jacksonville will throw the football often under offensive coordinator Carl Smith, and wide receivers like Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford should be motivated to find success and support Leftwich in the pass attack. In a best-case scenario, Leftwich could record better than 3,500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.
Eli Manning, QB, N.Y. Giants
Manning was inconsistent at times last season, but Peyton's little brother still finished with better than 3,700 yards and 25 total touchdowns. He now has 23 pro starts under his belt and should continue to develop into one of the league's more productive quarterbacks, so look for him to become a more reliable starter between the white lines. With unlimited talent and terrific offensive weapons around him, Manning could push 30 total touchdowns.
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh
Miller developed into a solid sleeper as a rookie with 39 receptions, 459 yards and six touchdowns, and he should take the next step to fantasy football stardom this season. The Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger should lean on him in a much more prominent fashion now that Antwaan Randle El is out of the mix, so don't be shocked if Miller finishes the season with better than 40 receptions, 500-plus yards and five to seven touchdowns.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh
Even though he won a Super Bowl title, Roethlisberger was still one of the league's most underrated quarterbacks from a statistical perspective. He threw for 2,385 yards and scored 20 total touchdowns in just 12 starts, so the potential for 3,000-plus yards and 25-30 total touchdowns are well within reach. Unless he doesn't recover well from his offseason motorcycle accident, Roethlisberger should become a viable No. 1 quarterback in all formats.
Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay
Williams proved he has what it takes to produce at a high level as a rookie, and that first season of experience as a starter will be invaluable to his development into a productive and reliable featured back. The Bucs made some offseason moves that indicate an increased dependence on the run, so head coach Jon Gruden is certain to put the pedal to the medal with the Cadillac, who has the potential to rush for better than 1,300 yards and record double-digit touchdowns.
Roy Williams, WR, Detroit
Williams has battled injuries in his first two pro seasons, but owners should still consider him a solid breakout candidate due to his talents and the presence of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Texas product now has an experienced quarterback in Jon Kitna under center and will be in what has the potential to be an explosive offense, so look for Williams to produce career numbers across the board. He's well worth a fourth-round selection in drafts.
By Michael Fabiano
Senior Fantasy Writer
Amidst the endless cheat sheets, strategies and dollar values owners will encounter, sometimes a successful draft comes down to knowing which players are primed for enormous statistical seasons. As owners who had Tom Brady, Larry Johnson or Steve Smith last season can attest, some breakout athletes can be the difference between a competitive team and one that has a chance to win a championship.
Here's our list of 15 potential breakout candidates for 2006:
Breakout Players
Drew Bledsoe, QB, Dallas
Bledsoe's rise in draft value can be summarized in two words: Terrell Owens. The presence of the talented wide receiver meant greater statistical success for Jeff Garcia and Donovan McNabb in the past, and the same should happen in the case of Bledsoe. While the Cowboys offense will still be based on the run, there's no reason to believe Bledsoe won't be able to accrue close to 3,800 yards and 25-30 touchdowns with T.O. in the pass attack.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami
Ricky Williams has been suspended for the entire season and is now with Toronto of the Canadian Football League, so Brown will serve as the true featured back in Miami. Head coach Nick Saban has shown great faith in Brown and will lean on him for 300-plus carries and 30-40 receptions out of the backfield, so expect him to break the 1,200-yard mark and record eight to 10 total touchdowns. He's well worth a second-round selection in all seasonal formats.
Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
The addition of head coach Scott Linehan and his high-octane offensive schemes should make Bulger one of the league's most attractive quarterbacks. With the support of Steven Jackson in the backfield, a talented core of wide receivers that includes Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis and in a division with little defense, Bulger should close in on 4,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns. Injuries are a concern, but Bulger's statistical upside is worth the risk.
Domanick Davis, RB, Houston
Davis' value was in question when it was believed Houston would choose Southern Cal's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft, but the selection of N.C. State's Mario Williams instead made Davis a breakout candidate. While injuries have been an issue throughout his pro career, it's hard to look past his statistical potential in new head coach Gary Kubiak's offense. Kubiak knows about backfield success from his time in Denver, so Davis has a chance to be solid.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco
Davis, a first-round selection out of Maryland, has a chance to make some serious noise as a rookie. A physical specimen with soft hands and a high level of athleticism, Davis should become a prominent option in the pass attack for quarterback Alex Smith and be difficult to tackle after the catch. He will need some time to adapt to the pro level, but Davis has the skills and abilities to produce 50-60 receptions and 500-plus yards in his first pro season.
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina
Delhomme has been underrated since his move from New Orleans to Carolina, but this could be the season he establishes himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. With DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield and Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson and Keary Colbert in the pass attack, Delhomme's offensive weapons have never been better. He could push 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns, so consider him in the middle rounds.
Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
The presence of Linehan also improves the value of Jackson, who will be prominent in the St. Louis offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined to record 49 receptions, 1,650 yards and 11 touchdowns under Linehan in Miami last season, and the same sort of numbers are well within reach for the versatile and talented Jackson. He should produce career bests across the board and is without question worth a first- or second-round selection.
Julius Jones, RB, Dallas
Jones must fend off injuries (and Marion Barber) to make the ultimate impact, but his best-case scenario is an attractive one from a statistical perspective. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball with more success now that Terrell Owens is in the offense, so Jones has a chance to exceed expectations and become the reliable and productive back he was late in his rookie season. Owners should consider him in the third- to fourth-round as a No. 2 back.
Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit
Jones failed to meet expectations last season, but we've decided to stick with him as a potential breakout candidate. A versatile athlete who should be prominent in the offense of new coordinator Mike Martz, Jones had drawn praise in the offseason from new head coach Rod Marinelli and Martz alike. He does come with a certain level of rish due his 2005 failures, but Jones should post 1,000-plus yards and is still worth a second- to third-round selection.
Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville
Injuries have been an issue for Leftwich over the past two seasons, but there's no doubt he has the abilities to produce solid numbers. Jacksonville will throw the football often under offensive coordinator Carl Smith, and wide receivers like Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford should be motivated to find success and support Leftwich in the pass attack. In a best-case scenario, Leftwich could record better than 3,500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.
Eli Manning, QB, N.Y. Giants
Manning was inconsistent at times last season, but Peyton's little brother still finished with better than 3,700 yards and 25 total touchdowns. He now has 23 pro starts under his belt and should continue to develop into one of the league's more productive quarterbacks, so look for him to become a more reliable starter between the white lines. With unlimited talent and terrific offensive weapons around him, Manning could push 30 total touchdowns.
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh
Miller developed into a solid sleeper as a rookie with 39 receptions, 459 yards and six touchdowns, and he should take the next step to fantasy football stardom this season. The Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger should lean on him in a much more prominent fashion now that Antwaan Randle El is out of the mix, so don't be shocked if Miller finishes the season with better than 40 receptions, 500-plus yards and five to seven touchdowns.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh
Even though he won a Super Bowl title, Roethlisberger was still one of the league's most underrated quarterbacks from a statistical perspective. He threw for 2,385 yards and scored 20 total touchdowns in just 12 starts, so the potential for 3,000-plus yards and 25-30 total touchdowns are well within reach. Unless he doesn't recover well from his offseason motorcycle accident, Roethlisberger should become a viable No. 1 quarterback in all formats.
Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay
Williams proved he has what it takes to produce at a high level as a rookie, and that first season of experience as a starter will be invaluable to his development into a productive and reliable featured back. The Bucs made some offseason moves that indicate an increased dependence on the run, so head coach Jon Gruden is certain to put the pedal to the medal with the Cadillac, who has the potential to rush for better than 1,300 yards and record double-digit touchdowns.
Roy Williams, WR, Detroit
Williams has battled injuries in his first two pro seasons, but owners should still consider him a solid breakout candidate due to his talents and the presence of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Texas product now has an experienced quarterback in Jon Kitna under center and will be in what has the potential to be an explosive offense, so look for Williams to produce career numbers across the board. He's well worth a fourth-round selection in drafts.