Post by John on Jun 23, 2006 17:04:38 GMT -4
Draft Preview: Addressing 10 burning issues
Dave Richard By Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
Ready for your Fantasy draft? Nonsense! No intelligent Fantasy Football owner should be prepared to build a team unless they've read this article. We did plenty of pondering to come up with the key Fantasy issues for owners to consider this year, and we've taken them to task. Check out what we feel are the 10 burning questions (and answers) all owners must face this season.
1. Who should be the top pick in all Fantasy drafts?
If you had bought our magazine (available at newsstands everywhere and online here at CBS SportsLine), you would already know the answer. But the short answer is that we narrowed down the possible top player to three lucky running backs: Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson. We like Johnson the best of the three because of how often he should touch the ball in Kansas City and his amazing veteran offensive line. The other two should be taken right after him.
2. If Johnson, Tomlinson and Alexander are the best three running backs out there, who's No. 4?
Again, this is something we tossed and turned over, but really the consolation prize for missing on 'the big three' is Clinton Portis, who might out-produce all of them. Portis will get almost all of the Redskins' carries, even at the goal line, plus some receptions and will run behind a pretty solid offensive line. In leagues that favor quarterbacks heavily, Peyton Manning could receive some consideration, and others may be interested in selecting Tiki Barber or Edgerrin James with the fourth overall choice in drafts, but Portis is our preferred pigskin toter at that point.
3. Can Barber possibly turn in another monster season?
The bad news is that Barber is 31 years old. The good news is that because Barber's career began as a third-down back -- not an every-down back -- he's not wearing down like most runners who get to their thirties. If you need any proof of that, might I suggest looking at his 2005 numbers (2,390 total yards, 11 total TDs). Barber plays in a very effective scheme with an underrated offensive line, so don't worry about Father Time slowing down the Giants' statistical, um, giant.
4. Which running backs 30 years or older should be handled cautiously?
Speaking of the dreaded age of "30," some rushers aren't going to be as lucky as Barber. Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor are all over 30 when the season starts, and Ahman Green is on the doorstep of turning the big 3-0. Dunn and Dillon put up nice stats last year while Taylor and Green are a season removed from being reliable. Of these backs, Dillon and Dunn are the ones to be wary of simply because they did so well last year and could be in for a let down. It also doesn't help their case that each of their teams drafted virtual clones of them this spring -- New England took Laurence Maroney and Atlanta picked Jerious Norwood. The clock is ticking on those stars for sure.
5. Is it safe to take an aged quarterback like Kurt Warner or Drew Bledsoe?
Unlike running backs, quarterbacks seem to improve with age -- so long as they're not on the injury list each week. Warner, 35 in Week 1, is the envy of all the league's signal-callers thanks to his running back and receivers, but his offensive line is far from air tight. Bledsoe, 34, has a better line and gets to throw to Terrell Owens. Trent Green, 36, is a lock for 4,000 yards a year but touchdown production is an issue. Steve McNair, 33, and Mark Brunell, 36, are also older but have promising offenses around them. And of course Brett Favre, 37 this October, is coming back for one last series of shootouts. If you draft any of these guys, the recommendation is to also select another good arm (even if they're old) just so you have a pair of cannons to lean on during the Fantasy season.
6. Of QBs who changed teams, which one is the safest choice?
Several passers changed uniforms this offseason, but the interesting note to all of them is that they all have potential to put up career numbers. Daunte Culpepper is in Miami, and if he's healthy he could get closer to his MVP-type 2004 stats; Aaron Brooks will wear black in Oakland and throw to Randy Moss and Jerry Porter; Jon Kitna and Josh McCown will compete to lead the Lions. But the two who have the most promise to hold up their end of the Fantasy bargain are McNair (Baltimore) and Drew Brees (New Orleans). McNair will reunite with Derrick Mason and get comfortable with Mark Clayton and Todd Heap, while Brees will have Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to throw to. Health is an issue with McNair and Brees' shoulder bears watching, but both should serve proudly in leagues this year.
7. Where do the elite receivers end and the good-but-not-awesome receivers begin?
If you're in a league where receptions don't count and you only start a pair of receivers, running out to draft a WR isn't the best plan. But if the reverse is true, picking your pass catchers needs to be a precise exercise. Everybody knows the premier receivers, but once they're gone the names on the board will look like a bunch of apples -- you won't be able to tell them apart. The number to keep in mind is 20: Once the top 20 WRs are off the board, you're basically looking at good athletes who will all put up close to the same statistics. So if receivers matter in your league, get them when players like Andre Johnson and Plaxico Burress are still on the board, not when Muhsin Muhammad is the best left available.
8. How likely is it that Steve Smith and Santana Moss will lead the NFL in receiving yards again?
Smith and Moss had something last year they don't have this year: Weak receiving teammates. Both Carolina and Washington improved their receiving corps this offseason, and the end result could be fewer passes thrown to Smith and Moss. Even worse, opposing teams will still focus on corraling Smith and Moss, meaning better numbers for their new teammates and a harder go of it for the Pro Bowlers. Drafting either speedster is still a good idea, but expecting continued über-production to carry over from 2005 is not realistic.
9. Which rookie should owners avoid in drafts?
This is a trick question with a trick answer. As always in drafts, value matters a lot. All of this year's rookies have a fair value in drafts, whether it's as an early- to middle-round pick like Joseph Addai or a last-round pick like Matt Leinart. As I've discovered on my own this preseason, picking a rookie too high could put a cramp in your team unless he comes out and just absolutely crushes the competition. Anyone who thinks Reggie Bush will just flatten everyone he plays as a rookie probably owns a USC mousepad. He's going to be great, but to anoint him as a legend just seems too premature. For starters, his touches will probably be maxed out at 20, and the Saints don't want to risk his health too soon in the season. The thing is, Bush isn't lasting long in drafts, usually not making it to the end of Round 3 (and in some drafts, Round 2). Bush should be avoided unless you can get him in a more appealing spot, such as early Round 4 -- avoid him otherwise.
10. Who are the best sleepers at each position?
I hope nobody I'm playing against in leagues this season reads this. At quarterback, I really love what Philip Rivers brings to the table and the fact that he's been studying the San Diego offense for three years adds to my belief that he will be great this season. Chester Taylor is one of my favorites at running back just because I know how Vikings head coach Brad Childress likes to revolve his offenses around the running back (even though he'll split reps). Mark Clayton was my favorite sleeper receiver before McNair came to Baltimore, but now that the veteran has changed addresses, Clayton is even more appealing (Michael Clayton, as luck would have it, is a close second). At tight end, my deep sleeper of the year is Kevin Everett of the Bills, a former Miami Hurricane with tons of athleticism. My kicker to wait for is Matt Stover, who is not only reliable and consistent but will play with a better offense. Defensively, I like Houston, Buffalo and San Diego as sleeper DST units.
Dave Richard By Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
Ready for your Fantasy draft? Nonsense! No intelligent Fantasy Football owner should be prepared to build a team unless they've read this article. We did plenty of pondering to come up with the key Fantasy issues for owners to consider this year, and we've taken them to task. Check out what we feel are the 10 burning questions (and answers) all owners must face this season.
1. Who should be the top pick in all Fantasy drafts?
If you had bought our magazine (available at newsstands everywhere and online here at CBS SportsLine), you would already know the answer. But the short answer is that we narrowed down the possible top player to three lucky running backs: Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson. We like Johnson the best of the three because of how often he should touch the ball in Kansas City and his amazing veteran offensive line. The other two should be taken right after him.
2. If Johnson, Tomlinson and Alexander are the best three running backs out there, who's No. 4?
Again, this is something we tossed and turned over, but really the consolation prize for missing on 'the big three' is Clinton Portis, who might out-produce all of them. Portis will get almost all of the Redskins' carries, even at the goal line, plus some receptions and will run behind a pretty solid offensive line. In leagues that favor quarterbacks heavily, Peyton Manning could receive some consideration, and others may be interested in selecting Tiki Barber or Edgerrin James with the fourth overall choice in drafts, but Portis is our preferred pigskin toter at that point.
3. Can Barber possibly turn in another monster season?
The bad news is that Barber is 31 years old. The good news is that because Barber's career began as a third-down back -- not an every-down back -- he's not wearing down like most runners who get to their thirties. If you need any proof of that, might I suggest looking at his 2005 numbers (2,390 total yards, 11 total TDs). Barber plays in a very effective scheme with an underrated offensive line, so don't worry about Father Time slowing down the Giants' statistical, um, giant.
4. Which running backs 30 years or older should be handled cautiously?
Speaking of the dreaded age of "30," some rushers aren't going to be as lucky as Barber. Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor are all over 30 when the season starts, and Ahman Green is on the doorstep of turning the big 3-0. Dunn and Dillon put up nice stats last year while Taylor and Green are a season removed from being reliable. Of these backs, Dillon and Dunn are the ones to be wary of simply because they did so well last year and could be in for a let down. It also doesn't help their case that each of their teams drafted virtual clones of them this spring -- New England took Laurence Maroney and Atlanta picked Jerious Norwood. The clock is ticking on those stars for sure.
5. Is it safe to take an aged quarterback like Kurt Warner or Drew Bledsoe?
Unlike running backs, quarterbacks seem to improve with age -- so long as they're not on the injury list each week. Warner, 35 in Week 1, is the envy of all the league's signal-callers thanks to his running back and receivers, but his offensive line is far from air tight. Bledsoe, 34, has a better line and gets to throw to Terrell Owens. Trent Green, 36, is a lock for 4,000 yards a year but touchdown production is an issue. Steve McNair, 33, and Mark Brunell, 36, are also older but have promising offenses around them. And of course Brett Favre, 37 this October, is coming back for one last series of shootouts. If you draft any of these guys, the recommendation is to also select another good arm (even if they're old) just so you have a pair of cannons to lean on during the Fantasy season.
6. Of QBs who changed teams, which one is the safest choice?
Several passers changed uniforms this offseason, but the interesting note to all of them is that they all have potential to put up career numbers. Daunte Culpepper is in Miami, and if he's healthy he could get closer to his MVP-type 2004 stats; Aaron Brooks will wear black in Oakland and throw to Randy Moss and Jerry Porter; Jon Kitna and Josh McCown will compete to lead the Lions. But the two who have the most promise to hold up their end of the Fantasy bargain are McNair (Baltimore) and Drew Brees (New Orleans). McNair will reunite with Derrick Mason and get comfortable with Mark Clayton and Todd Heap, while Brees will have Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to throw to. Health is an issue with McNair and Brees' shoulder bears watching, but both should serve proudly in leagues this year.
7. Where do the elite receivers end and the good-but-not-awesome receivers begin?
If you're in a league where receptions don't count and you only start a pair of receivers, running out to draft a WR isn't the best plan. But if the reverse is true, picking your pass catchers needs to be a precise exercise. Everybody knows the premier receivers, but once they're gone the names on the board will look like a bunch of apples -- you won't be able to tell them apart. The number to keep in mind is 20: Once the top 20 WRs are off the board, you're basically looking at good athletes who will all put up close to the same statistics. So if receivers matter in your league, get them when players like Andre Johnson and Plaxico Burress are still on the board, not when Muhsin Muhammad is the best left available.
8. How likely is it that Steve Smith and Santana Moss will lead the NFL in receiving yards again?
Smith and Moss had something last year they don't have this year: Weak receiving teammates. Both Carolina and Washington improved their receiving corps this offseason, and the end result could be fewer passes thrown to Smith and Moss. Even worse, opposing teams will still focus on corraling Smith and Moss, meaning better numbers for their new teammates and a harder go of it for the Pro Bowlers. Drafting either speedster is still a good idea, but expecting continued über-production to carry over from 2005 is not realistic.
9. Which rookie should owners avoid in drafts?
This is a trick question with a trick answer. As always in drafts, value matters a lot. All of this year's rookies have a fair value in drafts, whether it's as an early- to middle-round pick like Joseph Addai or a last-round pick like Matt Leinart. As I've discovered on my own this preseason, picking a rookie too high could put a cramp in your team unless he comes out and just absolutely crushes the competition. Anyone who thinks Reggie Bush will just flatten everyone he plays as a rookie probably owns a USC mousepad. He's going to be great, but to anoint him as a legend just seems too premature. For starters, his touches will probably be maxed out at 20, and the Saints don't want to risk his health too soon in the season. The thing is, Bush isn't lasting long in drafts, usually not making it to the end of Round 3 (and in some drafts, Round 2). Bush should be avoided unless you can get him in a more appealing spot, such as early Round 4 -- avoid him otherwise.
10. Who are the best sleepers at each position?
I hope nobody I'm playing against in leagues this season reads this. At quarterback, I really love what Philip Rivers brings to the table and the fact that he's been studying the San Diego offense for three years adds to my belief that he will be great this season. Chester Taylor is one of my favorites at running back just because I know how Vikings head coach Brad Childress likes to revolve his offenses around the running back (even though he'll split reps). Mark Clayton was my favorite sleeper receiver before McNair came to Baltimore, but now that the veteran has changed addresses, Clayton is even more appealing (Michael Clayton, as luck would have it, is a close second). At tight end, my deep sleeper of the year is Kevin Everett of the Bills, a former Miami Hurricane with tons of athleticism. My kicker to wait for is Matt Stover, who is not only reliable and consistent but will play with a better offense. Defensively, I like Houston, Buffalo and San Diego as sleeper DST units.