Post by John on Feb 16, 2007 23:25:42 GMT -4
From the Seattle Post Intelligencer...
There was a general assumption 16 months ago when Seattle Prep star Spencer Hawes committed to play basketball at the University of Washington. Fans and observers presumed the gifted 7-footer would dominate the Pac-10, lead the Huskies to the NCAA Tournament and then announce his intentions to leave for the NBA shortly thereafter.
While Hawes has displayed flashes of dominance, there is no chance he will be the first freshman since Shareef Abdur-Rahim from Cal to win conference player of the year. What's more, it may not be a cinch that Hawes would be picked in the NBA draft lottery should he choose to forgo his final three years of eligibility.
According to an NBA Eastern Conference scout who has watched Hawes and several other former area high school standouts play in college, Hawes needs to think hard before he decides to leave Lorenzo Romar's nest for the rigors of the NBA.
Hawes, averaging 15.1 points and 5.8 rebounds in 24 games, is being grouped with a slew of second-tier prospects after elite players Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. But how high or low Hawes stands in that tier is uncertain.
"He has very good hands, plays well in the open floor for a guy that's 6-11," the scout said. "He's very comfortable with the ball, has a great touch around the basket, nice form with his shot. He is not going to be the quickest or most athletic guy.
"Some guys like Hawes and (Pitt's) Aaron Gray, those guys were immediately looked at as lottery picks 15 years ago. (But) just because you're big doesn't give you that advantage. There are plenty of NBA teams who have won titles without a big center, and if this 6-9 guy is more athletic, they may take him."
The scout compared Hawes to Sacramento's Brad Miller, a fundamentally sound player with a solid outside shot and above-average passing skills. But numbers hurt Hawes in one of the deepest drafts in league history.
Not only is there the class of 2006 high schoolers -- like Hawes -- who were banned from entering last year's draft, there are a handful of sophomores and juniors coming out as well. Add to that international players, seniors and freshmen with rising stock, and Hawes could fall quickly.
"He struggles against the more athletic, quicker big (men), and his rebounding skills are good but not great," the scout said. "He's gotta get stronger on his lower body. He's not that imposing force defensively."
The scout had a suggestion for any freshman on the bubble.
"If you're going to put your name into this year's draft, you'd better come with very little flaws," he said. "(Hawes) could definitely benefit his draft status by going back to school. In no way is he a lock for the lottery. (The 2008 draft) is not going to have the amount of big men (as this year's draft)."
The scout said he really liked former Kentwood star Rodney Stuckey, who is a strong candidate for Big Sky Player of the Year as a sophomore at Eastern Washington, averaging 24.7 points per game.
"He is one of the better combo guards in the country, great size, strong, excellent feel, feel for finding people and making plays," the scout said. "He's definitely a scorer who can score out to the NBA 3-point line. His weakness is he doesn't take enough shots."
Stuckey's main issue is playing in the underexposed Big Sky Conference, and two more years there may not improve his rising stock
"There are going to be some people not convinced of his talent based on his level of competition, that could work against him," the scout said.
There was a general assumption 16 months ago when Seattle Prep star Spencer Hawes committed to play basketball at the University of Washington. Fans and observers presumed the gifted 7-footer would dominate the Pac-10, lead the Huskies to the NCAA Tournament and then announce his intentions to leave for the NBA shortly thereafter.
While Hawes has displayed flashes of dominance, there is no chance he will be the first freshman since Shareef Abdur-Rahim from Cal to win conference player of the year. What's more, it may not be a cinch that Hawes would be picked in the NBA draft lottery should he choose to forgo his final three years of eligibility.
According to an NBA Eastern Conference scout who has watched Hawes and several other former area high school standouts play in college, Hawes needs to think hard before he decides to leave Lorenzo Romar's nest for the rigors of the NBA.
Hawes, averaging 15.1 points and 5.8 rebounds in 24 games, is being grouped with a slew of second-tier prospects after elite players Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. But how high or low Hawes stands in that tier is uncertain.
"He has very good hands, plays well in the open floor for a guy that's 6-11," the scout said. "He's very comfortable with the ball, has a great touch around the basket, nice form with his shot. He is not going to be the quickest or most athletic guy.
"Some guys like Hawes and (Pitt's) Aaron Gray, those guys were immediately looked at as lottery picks 15 years ago. (But) just because you're big doesn't give you that advantage. There are plenty of NBA teams who have won titles without a big center, and if this 6-9 guy is more athletic, they may take him."
The scout compared Hawes to Sacramento's Brad Miller, a fundamentally sound player with a solid outside shot and above-average passing skills. But numbers hurt Hawes in one of the deepest drafts in league history.
Not only is there the class of 2006 high schoolers -- like Hawes -- who were banned from entering last year's draft, there are a handful of sophomores and juniors coming out as well. Add to that international players, seniors and freshmen with rising stock, and Hawes could fall quickly.
"He struggles against the more athletic, quicker big (men), and his rebounding skills are good but not great," the scout said. "He's gotta get stronger on his lower body. He's not that imposing force defensively."
The scout had a suggestion for any freshman on the bubble.
"If you're going to put your name into this year's draft, you'd better come with very little flaws," he said. "(Hawes) could definitely benefit his draft status by going back to school. In no way is he a lock for the lottery. (The 2008 draft) is not going to have the amount of big men (as this year's draft)."
The scout said he really liked former Kentwood star Rodney Stuckey, who is a strong candidate for Big Sky Player of the Year as a sophomore at Eastern Washington, averaging 24.7 points per game.
"He is one of the better combo guards in the country, great size, strong, excellent feel, feel for finding people and making plays," the scout said. "He's definitely a scorer who can score out to the NBA 3-point line. His weakness is he doesn't take enough shots."
Stuckey's main issue is playing in the underexposed Big Sky Conference, and two more years there may not improve his rising stock
"There are going to be some people not convinced of his talent based on his level of competition, that could work against him," the scout said.