Post by John on Jun 23, 2006 17:00:42 GMT -4
Draft Preview: McAllister, Rivers headline list of busts
By Michael Fabiano
Senior Fantasy Writer
Amidst the endless cheat sheets, strategies and dollar values owners will encounter, sometimes a successful draft comes down to one simple tasks: Avoiding busts. Owners who used a valuable draft choice on Daunte Culpepper, Jamal Lewis or Joe Horn last season can attest, busts can be hard to overcome because more often than not those athletes were chosen to serve in prominent roles.
Here is our list of 15 potential busts for 2006:
Busts
Mike Anderson, RB, Baltimore
Anderson re-emerged into a valuable starter in Denver last season with 1,014 yards and 12 touchdowns, but an offseason move to Baltimore will mean far fewer opportunities to produce solid stat lines. The Ravens have an established starter in their backfield in Jamal Lewis, which will mean either a reserve role or a move to the fullback position for Anderson. In fact, he could be hard pressed to reach even half of his solid 2005 totals.
Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee
Brown has showed flashes of brilliance at times in Tennessee, but he's been prone to injuries and now has some serious competition for the top spot on the depth chart. Veteran Travis Henry remains in the mix, and the addition of rookie LenDale White makes Brown's status as the team's starter even more uncertain. Even if he retains the role, Brown will no doubt share carries at best and could see a decrease in his overall numbers.
Corey Dillon, RB, New England
Dillon, who turns 32 in October, has endured 2,419 regular-season carries and could be headed for the downside of his career. Injuries limited him to 10 starts last season -- which could be part of the reason the Patriots selected Minnesota's Laurence Maroney in the NFL Draft -- and his level of production suffered as a result. While he should still record decent touchdown totals, Dillon's overall numbers might continue to head south.
Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay
Galloway came out of nowhere to produce career highs in receptions and yards last season, so owners will no doubt look to add him the first five rounds of drafts. However, the 34-year-old wideout could be hard pressed to record 1,200-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns in consecutive seasons. The return of Michael Clayton to 100 percent, not to mention an offense that is set to run more often, could limit Galloway's production.
Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas
The addition of stud wide receiver Terrell Owens is expected to be a positive for Glenn, but the opposite could be true from a statistical perspective. No wideout who has started opposite Owens -- a list that includes Jerry Rice -- has reached the 1,000-yard mark that season. While Glenn is more talented than most of the athletes who've started with Owens, this little factoid is still valid and could be an indication that Glenn's numbers are destined to fall.
Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay
A former All-Pro back, Green's level of statistical success has fallen due to a combination of injuries and a decrease in the effectiveness of the Packers' offensive line. He enters the season as the favorite to top the depth chart, but even at 100 percent he'll have to contend with Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport for carries in the offense. Unless he shows he can still shoulder the load, Green will remain inconsistent an unreliable for owners.
Rex Grossman, QB, Chicago
Expectations will be high for Grossman, who showed some potential after he returned from an injured ankle last season. But in an offense that's based on the run, a noted proneness to injuries and the curse of Florida quarterbacks over his head, Grossman seems destined to disappoint. Furthermore, the addition of veteran Brian Griese -- who could become the starter under the right cirumstances -- makes Grossman one to avoid in all drafts.
Eric Johnson, TE, San Francisco
With the selection of Maryland's Vernon Davis in the NFL Draft, Johnson went from a potential sleeper and into a bust candidate. A former collegiate wide receiver who has had problems with injuries at the pro level, Johnson will now see fewer chances to produce in the offense with Davis in the mix. Even if San Francisco decides to run more two tight end sets, it will be Davis, not Johnson, whose statistics would benefit the most.
Curtis Martin, RB, N.Y. Jets
The end of what was a spectacular career might have started last season when Martin failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time ever. Furthermore, the veteran back was also forced to miss regular-season starts for the first time since 1998 and will look to return from a surgical procedure on his knee at the extended age of 33. Unless he finds the fountain of youth soon, it appears Martin's level of production will continue to fall.
Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans
McAllister's value went south quicker than Enron stock the second New Orleans landed USC's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft. While he is still the favorite to open the season atop the depth chart -- unless his injured knee isn't 100 percent -- McAllister is certain to see far fewer carries with Bush in the mix. There's little reason to believe he can find his past success in this current situation, so owners should expect McAllister's numbers to fall.
Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
McGahee's numbers and level of consistent production were a serious disappointment last season, and questions at the quarterback position in Buffalo could mean countless stacked fronts and another frustration-filled campaign. He should still rush for 1,000-plus yards and four to six touchdowns, but McGahee could have some bad statistical weeks as well and become a less-reliable starter against the league's more formidable run defenses.
Santana Moss, WR, Washington
Moss has a definite chance to produce another 1,000-yard season, but the additions of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El could mean fewer opportunties for him to produce at a high level and a decrease in his level of consistent stat lines. With two more viable offensive threats now in the mix, the football will be spread out much more in the pass attack and in turn cause Moss to lose some chances he otherwise would have received.
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego
Rivers inherited the top spot on the depth chart in San Diego after the Chargers decided to allow former starter Drew Brees (Saints) to leave as a free agent, but owners shouldn't be so fast to consider him a viable starter. While his long-term outlook is bright, Rivers has never started a regular-season game and will endure his share of struggles in his first season behind center as he learns and adjusts to a faster and more athletic pro environment.
Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville
The old "Fragile Fred" made a return last season as the veteran was forced to miss five starts due to injuries. Now 30, Taylor's window for statistical success could close sooner than later in Jacksonville. The team added UCLA's Maurice Drew as a potential heir apparant, and there's no question that Greg Jones will see his share of carries in goal-line situations. Taylor is still a viable starter in some formats, but his best seasons are well in the past.
Javon Walker, WR, Denver
Walker possesses immense long-term potential, but he could find it difficult to recapture his 2004 form in the first season after a reconstructive procedure on his right knee. The aforementioned Galloway and Marcus Robinson both had similar procedures and struggled in their first seasons back, and the same situation could hinder Walker. A 1,000-yard season is within reach, but Walker could be inconsistent and cause owners countless headaches.
By Michael Fabiano
Senior Fantasy Writer
Amidst the endless cheat sheets, strategies and dollar values owners will encounter, sometimes a successful draft comes down to one simple tasks: Avoiding busts. Owners who used a valuable draft choice on Daunte Culpepper, Jamal Lewis or Joe Horn last season can attest, busts can be hard to overcome because more often than not those athletes were chosen to serve in prominent roles.
Here is our list of 15 potential busts for 2006:
Busts
Mike Anderson, RB, Baltimore
Anderson re-emerged into a valuable starter in Denver last season with 1,014 yards and 12 touchdowns, but an offseason move to Baltimore will mean far fewer opportunities to produce solid stat lines. The Ravens have an established starter in their backfield in Jamal Lewis, which will mean either a reserve role or a move to the fullback position for Anderson. In fact, he could be hard pressed to reach even half of his solid 2005 totals.
Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee
Brown has showed flashes of brilliance at times in Tennessee, but he's been prone to injuries and now has some serious competition for the top spot on the depth chart. Veteran Travis Henry remains in the mix, and the addition of rookie LenDale White makes Brown's status as the team's starter even more uncertain. Even if he retains the role, Brown will no doubt share carries at best and could see a decrease in his overall numbers.
Corey Dillon, RB, New England
Dillon, who turns 32 in October, has endured 2,419 regular-season carries and could be headed for the downside of his career. Injuries limited him to 10 starts last season -- which could be part of the reason the Patriots selected Minnesota's Laurence Maroney in the NFL Draft -- and his level of production suffered as a result. While he should still record decent touchdown totals, Dillon's overall numbers might continue to head south.
Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay
Galloway came out of nowhere to produce career highs in receptions and yards last season, so owners will no doubt look to add him the first five rounds of drafts. However, the 34-year-old wideout could be hard pressed to record 1,200-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns in consecutive seasons. The return of Michael Clayton to 100 percent, not to mention an offense that is set to run more often, could limit Galloway's production.
Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas
The addition of stud wide receiver Terrell Owens is expected to be a positive for Glenn, but the opposite could be true from a statistical perspective. No wideout who has started opposite Owens -- a list that includes Jerry Rice -- has reached the 1,000-yard mark that season. While Glenn is more talented than most of the athletes who've started with Owens, this little factoid is still valid and could be an indication that Glenn's numbers are destined to fall.
Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay
A former All-Pro back, Green's level of statistical success has fallen due to a combination of injuries and a decrease in the effectiveness of the Packers' offensive line. He enters the season as the favorite to top the depth chart, but even at 100 percent he'll have to contend with Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport for carries in the offense. Unless he shows he can still shoulder the load, Green will remain inconsistent an unreliable for owners.
Rex Grossman, QB, Chicago
Expectations will be high for Grossman, who showed some potential after he returned from an injured ankle last season. But in an offense that's based on the run, a noted proneness to injuries and the curse of Florida quarterbacks over his head, Grossman seems destined to disappoint. Furthermore, the addition of veteran Brian Griese -- who could become the starter under the right cirumstances -- makes Grossman one to avoid in all drafts.
Eric Johnson, TE, San Francisco
With the selection of Maryland's Vernon Davis in the NFL Draft, Johnson went from a potential sleeper and into a bust candidate. A former collegiate wide receiver who has had problems with injuries at the pro level, Johnson will now see fewer chances to produce in the offense with Davis in the mix. Even if San Francisco decides to run more two tight end sets, it will be Davis, not Johnson, whose statistics would benefit the most.
Curtis Martin, RB, N.Y. Jets
The end of what was a spectacular career might have started last season when Martin failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time ever. Furthermore, the veteran back was also forced to miss regular-season starts for the first time since 1998 and will look to return from a surgical procedure on his knee at the extended age of 33. Unless he finds the fountain of youth soon, it appears Martin's level of production will continue to fall.
Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans
McAllister's value went south quicker than Enron stock the second New Orleans landed USC's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft. While he is still the favorite to open the season atop the depth chart -- unless his injured knee isn't 100 percent -- McAllister is certain to see far fewer carries with Bush in the mix. There's little reason to believe he can find his past success in this current situation, so owners should expect McAllister's numbers to fall.
Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
McGahee's numbers and level of consistent production were a serious disappointment last season, and questions at the quarterback position in Buffalo could mean countless stacked fronts and another frustration-filled campaign. He should still rush for 1,000-plus yards and four to six touchdowns, but McGahee could have some bad statistical weeks as well and become a less-reliable starter against the league's more formidable run defenses.
Santana Moss, WR, Washington
Moss has a definite chance to produce another 1,000-yard season, but the additions of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El could mean fewer opportunties for him to produce at a high level and a decrease in his level of consistent stat lines. With two more viable offensive threats now in the mix, the football will be spread out much more in the pass attack and in turn cause Moss to lose some chances he otherwise would have received.
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego
Rivers inherited the top spot on the depth chart in San Diego after the Chargers decided to allow former starter Drew Brees (Saints) to leave as a free agent, but owners shouldn't be so fast to consider him a viable starter. While his long-term outlook is bright, Rivers has never started a regular-season game and will endure his share of struggles in his first season behind center as he learns and adjusts to a faster and more athletic pro environment.
Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville
The old "Fragile Fred" made a return last season as the veteran was forced to miss five starts due to injuries. Now 30, Taylor's window for statistical success could close sooner than later in Jacksonville. The team added UCLA's Maurice Drew as a potential heir apparant, and there's no question that Greg Jones will see his share of carries in goal-line situations. Taylor is still a viable starter in some formats, but his best seasons are well in the past.
Javon Walker, WR, Denver
Walker possesses immense long-term potential, but he could find it difficult to recapture his 2004 form in the first season after a reconstructive procedure on his right knee. The aforementioned Galloway and Marcus Robinson both had similar procedures and struggled in their first seasons back, and the same situation could hinder Walker. A 1,000-yard season is within reach, but Walker could be inconsistent and cause owners countless headaches.