Post by John on Jun 15, 2006 21:40:55 GMT -4
In roto land, slow 'n' steady always beats young 'n' sexy
June 14, 2006
By Larry Dobrow
Special to CBS SportsLine.com
You said several not-so-bright things at your roto draft this year. You lauded C.C. Sabathia's renewed commitment to physical conditioning. You chirped about how Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett would handle with aplomb the transition from cavernous NL stadium to DH-infested AL bandbox. You recommended the guacamole to an owner two weeks removed from gastric-bypass surgery.
At the same time, when you opened your crud-infested maw to make later-round picks, your usual verbal expulsion of spittle and ignorance was replaced by something close to legit insight. While the rest of us were foaming at the mouth over second-year slingers like Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain, you grabbed Brad Penny and Aaron Harang. As we sacrificed our newborns at the speedy altars of Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik, you calmly claimed Jermaine Dye and Magglio Ordonez.
I don't know if this was part of some well-appointed scheme or simply happenstance. But the lesson bears repeating for the 4,736th time in this space: boring veterans trump sexy young'uns, in roto if not in speed-dating. Proceed accordingly in your midseason deal-mongering.
Cut your losses
Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox: He looks like a leadoff hitter -– especially when he flashes the Mickey Rivers/Rickey Henderson waggle –- and he plays one of the few positions that by-the-book managers will write into the leadoff slot. Crisp does not, however, take many pitches, plus he steals bases quite inefficiently (successful only 65 percent of the time over the course of his career). If Manny Ramirez were aware of anything going on around him, he'd probably be lobbying to get OBP hero Kevin Youkilis restored into the leadoff slot about now.
Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks: This is not -– I repeat, NOT –- an endorsement of Jorge Julio's fitness as a closer; he's more pungent than weeks-old Roquefort and considerably less personable. Valverde, whether or not he gets the chance to reclaim the closer gig, simply can't get anybody out: He has allowed two runs in six of his last eight appearances. Subsequently, he lacks value in any role that doesn't reward a conga line of batters around the base paths.
The chronically frail: When I read the favorable initial injury reports on Rich Harden and Eric Gagne, I was fast to jump on the restorative-power-of-modern-medicine bandwagon and champion them enthusiastically. But after lighting votive candles, hiring several shamans and posting get-well poems to their MySpace pages ("Rich, my Rich, I know you're swell, so/Don't forget to put ice on your elbow!!!!"), I realize that my faith and longing has gotten the best of me. Cut them both, abruptly and with great prejudice.
Be patient, fella
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: The more-impartial-than-Thurgood-Marshall-and-Simon-Cowell-combined YES Network commentators have taken to saying that poor, sweet A-Rod "looks lost." I think this may be overstating the case: He can find his way to home plate without asking for directions; he just seems to have forgotten what to do once he gets there. Saying that his past track record has earned him the benefit of the doubt is an understatement on par with "mountains are tall."
Control-impaired closers: A quick gander at the morning box scores more often than not discloses a few worrying trends among elite short relievers. Specifically, Derrick Turnbow, Ryan Dempster and Jason Isringhausen rarely make it through an inning without putting the tying or winning run on base via free pass. My take? You'd like every inning to be Kidman-pristine, but sometimes Lohan-dirty gets the job done. Whether or not these guys evoke memories of the strike-zone schizophrenia of the post-meltdown Mark Wohlers, they're still headed towards 40 saves.
For real
Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins: This recommendation comes with a rare non-Bonds-related asterisk, as I've only seen about four of the guy's at-bats. Seriously, could the Marlins have any less of a national profile right now? You'd think they were playing for the Stanley Cup or something.
Jered Weaver, Los Anaheim Frisco Kids: Except on the 150 or so days per year that he inks Darin Erstad's name into the starting lineup, Mike Scioscia isn't a dumb man. So I can't see him bouncing Jered (4-0, 1.37 ERA and .76 WHIP in four starts) to the pen or minors when Bartolo Colon eats his way back onto the active roster later this week. The only rational candidate for demotion, in fact, is Jered's big brother, Jeff (6.15 ERA, 16 HRs allowed in 75 innings). This could set up quite the interesting competitive dynamic at the Weaver family Passover table next April.
Sell high
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: When he looks in the mirror, does he see Jeff Francoeur? Well, probably not, as there are some noticeable skin-pigmentation discrepancies. Nonetheless, the two have more than a bit in common, especially in their eagerness to please opposing pitchers by hacking at their every offering. So while Kemp might score high in the manners department, sooner or later pitchers will start serving him a steady diet of off-the-plate slop. When that inevitably happens, look for his power numbers and batting average to crash-land.
Buy low
Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks: A visit to the SportsLine.com waiver wire reveals that this Berkman-in-training is unowned in many a roto league, which constitutes an egregious offense against common sense. Are you people truly that dense? Actually, if you've gotten this far into the column, you may well be … Either way, grab Young Conor if he's still out there and bask in the glory of a potentially Konerkoian second half.
Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers: Two straight seasons, I've dealt Milwaukee's best at the All-Star Break. Two straight seasons, he's shoved it in my face with a sublime second half. As a result, I'm trading for him right friggin' now, his recent lineup demotion (to the seven-hole) be damned. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third time, prep the lobotomy tongs.
June 14, 2006
By Larry Dobrow
Special to CBS SportsLine.com
You said several not-so-bright things at your roto draft this year. You lauded C.C. Sabathia's renewed commitment to physical conditioning. You chirped about how Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett would handle with aplomb the transition from cavernous NL stadium to DH-infested AL bandbox. You recommended the guacamole to an owner two weeks removed from gastric-bypass surgery.
At the same time, when you opened your crud-infested maw to make later-round picks, your usual verbal expulsion of spittle and ignorance was replaced by something close to legit insight. While the rest of us were foaming at the mouth over second-year slingers like Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain, you grabbed Brad Penny and Aaron Harang. As we sacrificed our newborns at the speedy altars of Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik, you calmly claimed Jermaine Dye and Magglio Ordonez.
I don't know if this was part of some well-appointed scheme or simply happenstance. But the lesson bears repeating for the 4,736th time in this space: boring veterans trump sexy young'uns, in roto if not in speed-dating. Proceed accordingly in your midseason deal-mongering.
Cut your losses
Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox: He looks like a leadoff hitter -– especially when he flashes the Mickey Rivers/Rickey Henderson waggle –- and he plays one of the few positions that by-the-book managers will write into the leadoff slot. Crisp does not, however, take many pitches, plus he steals bases quite inefficiently (successful only 65 percent of the time over the course of his career). If Manny Ramirez were aware of anything going on around him, he'd probably be lobbying to get OBP hero Kevin Youkilis restored into the leadoff slot about now.
Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks: This is not -– I repeat, NOT –- an endorsement of Jorge Julio's fitness as a closer; he's more pungent than weeks-old Roquefort and considerably less personable. Valverde, whether or not he gets the chance to reclaim the closer gig, simply can't get anybody out: He has allowed two runs in six of his last eight appearances. Subsequently, he lacks value in any role that doesn't reward a conga line of batters around the base paths.
The chronically frail: When I read the favorable initial injury reports on Rich Harden and Eric Gagne, I was fast to jump on the restorative-power-of-modern-medicine bandwagon and champion them enthusiastically. But after lighting votive candles, hiring several shamans and posting get-well poems to their MySpace pages ("Rich, my Rich, I know you're swell, so/Don't forget to put ice on your elbow!!!!"), I realize that my faith and longing has gotten the best of me. Cut them both, abruptly and with great prejudice.
Be patient, fella
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: The more-impartial-than-Thurgood-Marshall-and-Simon-Cowell-combined YES Network commentators have taken to saying that poor, sweet A-Rod "looks lost." I think this may be overstating the case: He can find his way to home plate without asking for directions; he just seems to have forgotten what to do once he gets there. Saying that his past track record has earned him the benefit of the doubt is an understatement on par with "mountains are tall."
Control-impaired closers: A quick gander at the morning box scores more often than not discloses a few worrying trends among elite short relievers. Specifically, Derrick Turnbow, Ryan Dempster and Jason Isringhausen rarely make it through an inning without putting the tying or winning run on base via free pass. My take? You'd like every inning to be Kidman-pristine, but sometimes Lohan-dirty gets the job done. Whether or not these guys evoke memories of the strike-zone schizophrenia of the post-meltdown Mark Wohlers, they're still headed towards 40 saves.
For real
Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins: This recommendation comes with a rare non-Bonds-related asterisk, as I've only seen about four of the guy's at-bats. Seriously, could the Marlins have any less of a national profile right now? You'd think they were playing for the Stanley Cup or something.
Jered Weaver, Los Anaheim Frisco Kids: Except on the 150 or so days per year that he inks Darin Erstad's name into the starting lineup, Mike Scioscia isn't a dumb man. So I can't see him bouncing Jered (4-0, 1.37 ERA and .76 WHIP in four starts) to the pen or minors when Bartolo Colon eats his way back onto the active roster later this week. The only rational candidate for demotion, in fact, is Jered's big brother, Jeff (6.15 ERA, 16 HRs allowed in 75 innings). This could set up quite the interesting competitive dynamic at the Weaver family Passover table next April.
Sell high
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: When he looks in the mirror, does he see Jeff Francoeur? Well, probably not, as there are some noticeable skin-pigmentation discrepancies. Nonetheless, the two have more than a bit in common, especially in their eagerness to please opposing pitchers by hacking at their every offering. So while Kemp might score high in the manners department, sooner or later pitchers will start serving him a steady diet of off-the-plate slop. When that inevitably happens, look for his power numbers and batting average to crash-land.
Buy low
Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks: A visit to the SportsLine.com waiver wire reveals that this Berkman-in-training is unowned in many a roto league, which constitutes an egregious offense against common sense. Are you people truly that dense? Actually, if you've gotten this far into the column, you may well be … Either way, grab Young Conor if he's still out there and bask in the glory of a potentially Konerkoian second half.
Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers: Two straight seasons, I've dealt Milwaukee's best at the All-Star Break. Two straight seasons, he's shoved it in my face with a sublime second half. As a result, I'm trading for him right friggin' now, his recent lineup demotion (to the seven-hole) be damned. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third time, prep the lobotomy tongs.